0xDipper @Dipper_pol

Nassim Taleb sat down with Daniel Kahneman - two of the sharpest minds on risk ever - and the takeaway was blunt: stop trying to be smart

Kahneman's prospect theory explains why almost nobody can do what Taleb does

We're wired to hate the steady trickle of small losses his strategy needs - even when one huge win more than pays for all of them

So you structure it the other way: tiny safe bets plus a few wild ones, never the comfortable middle.

"You'd rather be antifragile than intelligent - any time."

"Trial and error is really just trial with small error."

"Make your gains in small bites. Take your losses all at once."

~1 hr, free. two legends on risk, prediction, and how to win without forecasting ↓

Jun 10, 2026 View on X →

https://x.com/Dipper_pol/status/2064746525058556382