0xDipper @Dipper_pol

Daniel Kahneman - the psychologist who won a Nobel in economics - spent his life proving one thing: your confidence is lying to you

A bat and a ball cost $1.10. The bat costs $1 more than the ball. The answer "10 cents" jumps to mind instantly. It's wrong (it's 5 cents) - and ~50% of students at Harvard, MIT and Princeton say it without checking.

That gap is his whole point: the fast, intuitive mind builds a clean story from almost nothing, and the feeling of certainty has nothing to do with being right.

"Confidence is a feeling, not a judgment."

"Stock pickers can't develop intuition - there isn't enough regularity for it to form."

"You can build a very coherent story out of very little information."

~45 min, free. how your mind fools you - from a man who studied it for 50 years ↓

Jun 10, 2026 View on X →

https://x.com/Dipper_pol/status/2064799874210533514